Belief and Reasoning Biases

Texas sharpshooter fallacy

Choosing data after the fact to fit a claim.

What Is Texas sharpshooter fallacy?

Texas sharpshooter fallacy is a thinking trap where choosing data after the fact to fit a claim.

How It Tricks You

It can make a conclusion feel proven because it fits what already seems true.

Real-World Example

A company finds one impressive pattern after searching dozens of metrics.

Seen Online As

• The chart looks convincing before I check the sample.
• One number is being asked to carry the whole argument.
• The data point feels cleaner than the data really is.

What To Ask Instead

Was the target chosen before seeing the data?

Related Thinking Traps

• Anchoring bias
• Confirmation bias
• Framing effect
• Loss aversion

Common Situations

• Thinking Traps in Politics
• Thinking Traps Online
• Thinking Traps with AI Prompts

Quick FAQ

What is Texas sharpshooter fallacy?

Choosing data after the fact to fit a claim.

What is an example of Texas sharpshooter fallacy?

A company finds one impressive pattern after searching dozens of metrics.

How do I spot Texas sharpshooter fallacy?

Was the target chosen before seeing the data?