Decision-Making Biases

Base rate neglect

Ignoring general probabilities in favor of vivid details.

What Is Base rate neglect?

Base rate neglect is a thinking trap where ignoring general probabilities in favor of vivid details.

How It Tricks You

It can make one option feel obvious before the tradeoffs have been checked.

Real-World Example

A vivid startup story makes someone ignore how many startups fail.

Seen Online As

• The chart looks convincing before I check the sample.
• One number is being asked to carry the whole argument.
• The data point feels cleaner than the data really is.

What To Ask Instead

What usually happens in cases like this?

Related Thinking Traps

• Anchoring bias
• Confirmation bias
• Framing effect
• Loss aversion

Common Situations

• Thinking Traps at Work
• Thinking Traps with AI Prompts
• Thinking Traps in Money Decisions

Quick FAQ

What is Base rate neglect?

Ignoring general probabilities in favor of vivid details.

What is an example of Base rate neglect?

A vivid startup story makes someone ignore how many startups fail.

How do I spot Base rate neglect?

What usually happens in cases like this?