Decision-Making Biases
Overconfidence effect
Being more certain than accuracy justifies.
What Is Overconfidence effect?
Overconfidence effect is a thinking trap where being more certain than accuracy justifies.
How It Tricks You
It can make one option feel obvious before the tradeoffs have been checked.
Real-World Example
A driver rates their skill as above average despite several close calls.
Seen Online As
- I am pretty sure I know how this will go.
- I do not need to double-check; I have a good feel for it.
- My confidence is higher than the evidence deserves.
What To Ask Instead
What is my confidence based on?
Related Thinking Traps
Common Situations
Quick FAQ
What is Overconfidence effect?
Being more certain than accuracy justifies.
What is an example of Overconfidence effect?
A driver rates their skill as above average despite several close calls.
How do I spot Overconfidence effect?
What is my confidence based on?