Probability and Statistical Biases
Base rate fallacy
Ignoring general probabilities when judging a specific case.
What Is Base rate fallacy?
Base rate fallacy is a thinking trap where ignoring general probabilities when judging a specific case.
How It Tricks You
It can make noisy, incomplete, or poorly framed data feel more meaningful than it is.
Real-World Example
A vivid description makes a rare diagnosis feel more likely than it is.
Seen Online As
- The chart looks convincing before I check the sample.
- One number is being asked to carry the whole argument.
- The data point feels cleaner than the data really is.
What To Ask Instead
What usually happens in this category?
Related Thinking Traps
Common Situations
Quick FAQ
What is Base rate fallacy?
Ignoring general probabilities when judging a specific case.
What is an example of Base rate fallacy?
A vivid description makes a rare diagnosis feel more likely than it is.
How do I spot Base rate fallacy?
What usually happens in this category?