Decision-Making Biases
Conjunction fallacy
Assuming a detailed combined story is more likely than a simpler one.
What Is Conjunction fallacy?
Conjunction fallacy is a thinking trap where assuming a detailed combined story is more likely than a simpler one.
How It Tricks You
It can make one option feel obvious before the tradeoffs have been checked.
Real-World Example
A detailed personality story feels more likely than the simpler statistical answer.
Seen Online As
- The fast interpretation is doing more work than the evidence.
- The claim feels obvious before the check question is asked.
- A shortcut is making the judgment feel more certain than it is.
What To Ask Instead
Is the detailed version mathematically less likely?
Related Thinking Traps
Common Situations
Quick FAQ
What is Conjunction fallacy?
Assuming a detailed combined story is more likely than a simpler one.
What is an example of Conjunction fallacy?
A detailed personality story feels more likely than the simpler statistical answer.
How do I spot Conjunction fallacy?
Is the detailed version mathematically less likely?