Decision-Making Biases
Gambler's fallacy
Believing random streaks must soon reverse.
What Is Gambler's fallacy?
Gambler's fallacy is a thinking trap where believing random streaks must soon reverse.
How It Tricks You
It can make one option feel obvious before the tradeoffs have been checked.
Real-World Example
After five heads in a row, tails feels due.
Seen Online As
- The fast interpretation is doing more work than the evidence.
- The claim feels obvious before the check question is asked.
- A shortcut is making the judgment feel more certain than it is.
What To Ask Instead
Are these events independent?
Related Thinking Traps
Common Situations
Quick FAQ
What is Gambler's fallacy?
Believing random streaks must soon reverse.
What is an example of Gambler's fallacy?
After five heads in a row, tails feels due.
How do I spot Gambler's fallacy?
Are these events independent?