Decision-Making Biases
Hot-hand fallacy
Believing a streak means continued success is likely.
What Is Hot-hand fallacy?
Hot-hand fallacy is a thinking trap where believing a streak means continued success is likely.
How It Tricks You
It can make one option feel obvious before the tradeoffs have been checked.
Real-World Example
A fan assumes a player will keep scoring because they made the last three shots.
Seen Online As
- The fast interpretation is doing more work than the evidence.
- The claim feels obvious before the check question is asked.
- A shortcut is making the judgment feel more certain than it is.
What To Ask Instead
Is the streak skill, chance, or both?
Related Thinking Traps
Common Situations
Quick FAQ
What is Hot-hand fallacy?
Believing a streak means continued success is likely.
What is an example of Hot-hand fallacy?
A fan assumes a player will keep scoring because they made the last three shots.
How do I spot Hot-hand fallacy?
Is the streak skill, chance, or both?