Decision-Making Biases
Law of small numbers
Expecting small samples to represent the whole population.
What Is Law of small numbers?
Law of small numbers is a thinking trap where expecting small samples to represent the whole population.
How It Tricks You
It can make one option feel obvious before the tradeoffs have been checked.
Real-World Example
A person thinks three lucky sales calls prove a new script works.
Seen Online As
- The chart looks convincing before I check the sample.
- One number is being asked to carry the whole argument.
- The data point feels cleaner than the data really is.
What To Ask Instead
Could this small sample be noisy?
Related Thinking Traps
Common Situations
Quick FAQ
What is Law of small numbers?
Expecting small samples to represent the whole population.
What is an example of Law of small numbers?
A person thinks three lucky sales calls prove a new script works.
How do I spot Law of small numbers?
Could this small sample be noisy?