Decision-Making Biases
Outcome bias
Judging a decision by its result rather than its process.
What Is Outcome bias?
Outcome bias is a thinking trap where judging a decision by its result rather than its process.
How It Tricks You
It can make one option feel obvious before the tradeoffs have been checked.
Real-World Example
A risky shortcut is praised because it happened to work once.
Seen Online As
- The easiest option is starting to feel like the best one.
- I am defending the choice before comparing alternatives.
- The risk I can feel is louder than the risk I should calculate.
What To Ask Instead
Was the decision good given what was known then?
Related Thinking Traps
Common Situations
Quick FAQ
What is Outcome bias?
Judging a decision by its result rather than its process.
What is an example of Outcome bias?
A risky shortcut is praised because it happened to work once.
How do I spot Outcome bias?
Was the decision good given what was known then?