Decision-Making Biases
Pessimism bias
Overestimating the chance of bad outcomes.
What Is Pessimism bias?
Pessimism bias is a thinking trap where overestimating the chance of bad outcomes.
How It Tricks You
It can make one option feel obvious before the tradeoffs have been checked.
Real-World Example
One awkward meeting convinces someone the whole partnership will fail.
Seen Online As
- The fast interpretation is doing more work than the evidence.
- The claim feels obvious before the check question is asked.
- A shortcut is making the judgment feel more certain than it is.
What To Ask Instead
What evidence supports a less severe outcome?
Related Thinking Traps
Common Situations
Quick FAQ
What is Pessimism bias?
Overestimating the chance of bad outcomes.
What is an example of Pessimism bias?
One awkward meeting convinces someone the whole partnership will fail.
How do I spot Pessimism bias?
What evidence supports a less severe outcome?