Decision-Making Biases
Regression fallacy
Mistaking natural movement toward average for a causal effect.
What Is Regression fallacy?
Regression fallacy is a thinking trap where mistaking natural movement toward average for a causal effect.
How It Tricks You
It can make one option feel obvious before the tradeoffs have been checked.
Real-World Example
A coach credits a new speech when a bad performance naturally returns to average.
Seen Online As
- The fast interpretation is doing more work than the evidence.
- The claim feels obvious before the check question is asked.
- A shortcut is making the judgment feel more certain than it is.
What To Ask Instead
Would this have changed without intervention?
Related Thinking Traps
Common Situations
Quick FAQ
What is Regression fallacy?
Mistaking natural movement toward average for a causal effect.
What is an example of Regression fallacy?
A coach credits a new speech when a bad performance naturally returns to average.
How do I spot Regression fallacy?
Would this have changed without intervention?