Decision-Making Biases
Survivorship bias
Learning only from visible successes.
What Is Survivorship bias?
Survivorship bias is a thinking trap where learning only from visible successes.
How It Tricks You
It can make one option feel obvious before the tradeoffs have been checked.
Real-World Example
Entrepreneur advice comes only from founders whose companies survived.
Seen Online As
- They succeeded this way, so this must be the path.
- I am studying the winners and ignoring everyone who tried and failed.
- The visible success stories are hiding the missing failures.
What To Ask Instead
Who failed or disappeared from the sample?
Related Thinking Traps
Common Situations
Quick FAQ
What is Survivorship bias?
Learning only from visible successes.
What is an example of Survivorship bias?
Entrepreneur advice comes only from founders whose companies survived.
How do I spot Survivorship bias?
Who failed or disappeared from the sample?