Probability and Statistical Biases

Texas sharpshooter fallacy

Drawing the target around data after seeing it.

What Is Texas sharpshooter fallacy?

Texas sharpshooter fallacy is a thinking trap where drawing the target around data after seeing it.

How It Tricks You

It can make noisy, incomplete, or poorly framed data feel more meaningful than it is.

Real-World Example

A company finds one impressive pattern after searching dozens of metrics.

Seen Online As

• The chart looks convincing before I check the sample.
• One number is being asked to carry the whole argument.
• The data point feels cleaner than the data really is.

What To Ask Instead

Was the hypothesis chosen before the data?

Related Thinking Traps

• Anchoring bias
• Confirmation bias
• Framing effect
• Loss aversion

Common Situations

• Thinking Traps at Work

Quick FAQ

What is Texas sharpshooter fallacy?

Drawing the target around data after seeing it.

What is an example of Texas sharpshooter fallacy?

A company finds one impressive pattern after searching dozens of metrics.

How do I spot Texas sharpshooter fallacy?

Was the hypothesis chosen before the data?