Decision-Making Biases
Normalcy bias
Assuming things will continue normally despite warning signs.
What Is Normalcy bias?
Normalcy bias is a thinking trap where assuming things will continue normally despite warning signs.
How It Tricks You
It can make one option feel obvious before the tradeoffs have been checked.
Real-World Example
People delay evacuating because the storm does not feel real yet.
Seen Online As
- The fast interpretation is doing more work than the evidence.
- The claim feels obvious before the check question is asked.
- A shortcut is making the judgment feel more certain than it is.
What To Ask Instead
What if the warning signs are real?
Related Thinking Traps
Common Situations
Quick FAQ
What is Normalcy bias?
Assuming things will continue normally despite warning signs.
What is an example of Normalcy bias?
People delay evacuating because the storm does not feel real yet.
How do I spot Normalcy bias?
What if the warning signs are real?