Decision-Making Biases
Optimism bias
Overestimating the chance of good outcomes.
What Is Optimism bias?
Optimism bias is a thinking trap where overestimating the chance of good outcomes.
How It Tricks You
It can make one option feel obvious before the tradeoffs have been checked.
Real-World Example
A team assumes launch will be smooth because they really want it to be.
Seen Online As
- The fast interpretation is doing more work than the evidence.
- The claim feels obvious before the check question is asked.
- A shortcut is making the judgment feel more certain than it is.
What To Ask Instead
What could realistically go wrong?
Related Thinking Traps
Common Situations
Quick FAQ
What is Optimism bias?
Overestimating the chance of good outcomes.
What is an example of Optimism bias?
A team assumes launch will be smooth because they really want it to be.
How do I spot Optimism bias?
What could realistically go wrong?