Memory Biases
Hindsight bias
Seeing an outcome as more predictable after it happens.
What Is Hindsight bias?
Hindsight bias is a thinking trap where seeing an outcome as more predictable after it happens.
How It Tricks You
It can make a reconstructed memory feel like a clean recording.
Real-World Example
After a startup fails, everyone says the warning signs were obvious.
Seen Online As
- It was obvious from the beginning.
- I knew this would happen.
- Only after the outcome do the warning signs look crystal clear.
What To Ask Instead
What was actually knowable beforehand?
Related Thinking Traps
Common Situations
Quick FAQ
What is Hindsight bias?
Seeing an outcome as more predictable after it happens.
What is an example of Hindsight bias?
After a startup fails, everyone says the warning signs were obvious.
How do I spot Hindsight bias?
What was actually knowable beforehand?